Promise-to-Price
How the market reacts to corporate promises
How do share prices move around the dates a company pushes a deadline back, or finally discloses whether a dated promise was kept? We measure the move against the market from the close before the disclosure to the close of the second session after it. Every checked event we can price is included, whatever it shows. The results describe what coincided with these disclosures; they do not show that a missed deadline caused a price move.
Summary
The average move is close to zero; large falls were somewhat more frequent. A drop of 5% or more against the market coincided with these disclosures 1.3 times as often around a deadline push-back (20%) or a disclosed miss (18%) as around a delivery (15%).
Counted once per company and disclosure date: 1,396 missed commitments make 1,143 distinct events, and 3,960 kept commitments make 2,974, because several commitments are often settled in the same release.
Read with care: the final disclosure of a miss is often not news, because the slip was signalled earlier, and it usually arrives in an earnings release carrying other information. A small difference on the disclosure day is consistent with the market having already priced the slip, which is why early signals such as Miss Risk and deadline push-backs matter.
By outcome
| Outcome | Events | Average move | Median move | Fell 5% or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delivered on time | 2,974 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 15% |
| Delivered late | 513 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 19% |
| Not met | 588 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 18% |
| Partly delivered | 85 | +0.8% | -0.6% | 14% |
| Withdrawn | 39 | +2.5% | +0.2% | 18% |
Largest reactions to missed commitments
What this measures, and what it does not
For each commitment whose outcome is on record, we take the date the company’s own filing made the outcome public. We then compare the share price change with the S&P 500 (through the SPY fund) from the close of the session before that date to the close of the second session after it. This is an event study, the standard method in finance research and securities cases.
This is a descriptive study, not a causal one. Outcomes are often disclosed in an earnings release that carries other news, and the window does not yet control for earnings surprises or other announcements made the same day, so neither a single reaction nor the averages show that a missed deadline caused a share-price move. We do not claim the figures predict returns, litigation or losses. Where several commitments are settled in one release, the aggregates count that company and date once. Prices are adjusted for splits and dividends, and events with missing or doubtful price data are left out rather than estimated.